Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.361216 0.417232 0.478179 0.549298 0.629889 0.718254 0.822355
2025-10-05 0.271677 0.349572 0.442678 0.561598 0.708825 0.884443 1.109060
2025-10-12 0.228269 0.318037 0.432958 0.589591 0.796039 1.057186 1.410610
2025-10-19 0.194446 0.289592 0.418553 0.603962 0.861086 1.202037 1.684664
2025-10-26 0.166809 0.263620 0.401630 0.609538 0.910854 1.326900 1.938783
2025-11-02 0.143497 0.239512 0.382852 0.608136 0.947821 1.434067 2.173807
2025-11-09 0.123058 0.216283 0.361631 0.599272 0.970950 1.520894 2.383758
2025-11-16 0.106361 0.196319 0.342430 0.590314 0.991419 1.603294 2.590877
2025-11-23 0.090494 0.175278 0.318607 0.570658 0.992098 1.654068 2.751694
2025-11-30 0.085840 0.173073 0.325515 0.601633 1.075863 1.838680 3.131419
2025-12-07 0.074434 0.156889 0.306344 0.585948 1.080378 1.896412 3.312212
2025-12-14 0.064468 0.141953 0.287509 0.568519 1.079644 1.944347 3.478693
2025-12-21 0.056170 0.129277 0.271648 0.555300 1.085912 2.005822 3.674686
2025-12-28 0.052017 0.124546 0.270386 0.569146 1.141959 2.156503 4.032868
2026-01-04 0.049836 0.123685 0.276538 0.597598 1.226887 2.362895 4.500154
2026-01-11 0.046452 0.119651 0.275752 0.612155 1.286525 2.527719 4.903698
2026-01-18 0.042611 0.113987 0.270868 0.617801 1.329142 2.663927 5.263474
2026-01-25 0.038616 0.107330 0.263028 0.616381 1.357370 2.774733 5.582594
2026-02-01 0.034503 0.099732 0.252193 0.607408 1.369400 2.855317 5.849693
2026-02-08 0.030858 0.092733 0.241848 0.598339 1.380208 2.933744 6.116633
2026-02-15 0.026955 0.084396 0.227350 0.578441 1.366412 2.962763 6.289703
2026-02-22 0.026459 0.085282 0.235025 0.609798 1.464550 3.219722 6.921215
2026-03-01 0.023403 0.078458 0.222963 0.593920 1.458381 3.265749 7.137836